Using Risk Scores to Estimate Lower Extremity Fragility Fracture Risk among Individuals with Chronic Spinal Cord Injury: A Preliminary Model

Objectives: To develop SCI-FX, a risk score to estimate 5-year lower extremity fragility fracture risk among patients living with chronic spinal cord injury (cSCI). Methods: Adults with traumatic cSCI (n = 90) participated in a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study describing bone mineral density (BMD) change and fracture incidence conducted at the Lyndhurst Centre (University Health Network), University of Waterloo, and Physical Disability Rehabilitation Institute of Quebec City. Prior publication and clinical intuition were used to identify fragility fracture risk factors including prior fragility fracture, years post-injury, motor complete injury (AIS A/B), benzodiazepine use, opioid use, and parental osteoporosis. We conducted bivariate analyses to identify variables associated with fracture. Multiple logistic regressions were performed using fragility fracture incidence as the dependent variable and all variables from the univariate analyses with a highly liberal p value at 0.2. Using the odds ratios (ORs) from the multiple logistic regression model, a point system for fragility fracture risk score was developed, and the odds of fracture for each point was estimated. Results: All initial variables, with the exception of benzodiazepine exposure, were included in the final model. Conclusion: We identified a simple preliminary model for clinicians to estimate 5-year fracture risk among patients with cSCI based on their total score.