Modelling and Assessing the Spatiotemporal Changes to Future Land Use Change Scenarios Using Remote Sensing and CA-Markov Model in the Mellegue Catchment

The watershed of Mellegue, which covers 10,500 km(2), is a common area for Algeria and Tunisia. The catchment was chosen to evaluate land use/land cover changes (LULC) from 2002 to 2021, and to predict future LULC changes. Landsat images (ETM + and OLI-TIRS) and other ancillary data were used for the analysis and mapping of the LULC changes. Supervised classified maps were used later as inputs for the CA-Markov model to predict future LULC changes. Five LULC classes were identified: waterbody, bare ground, farmland, urban area and forest. Many changes have occurred in the study area where LULC changes have been influenced by many factors like agricultural expansion, population growth, shifting cultivation and other anthropogenic events (fire risk, industrial and urban development). Generally, substantial LULC changes still happen in the future. Hence, the land use prediction plan is substantial to sustain the resources of the Mellegue catchment and to halt land conservation.