Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective

被引：0
|
作者：
Kocoglu, Mustafa [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Erciyes Univ, Fac Commun, Dept Publ Relat & Publ, Kayseri, Turkiye
[2] Prague Univ Econ & Business, W Churchill Sq 4, Prague 13067 3, Czech Republic
来源：
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING | 2023年 / 56卷 / 04期
关键词：
Asymmetry; CPI inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Oil prices; Output gap; Turkey; OIL PRICE VOLATILITY; RATE PASS-THROUGH; OUTPUT GAP; ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY; CRUDE-OIL; POTENTIAL OUTPUT; FORWARD-LOOKING; SUPPLY SHOCKS; TIME-SERIES; MACROECONOMY;
D O I：
10.1007/s10644-023-09532-6
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
The main goal of this study is to investigate the determinants of inflation in Turkey within the framework of the new Keynesian Phillips curve using monthly data from 2000:M1 to 2021:M10. The results show that the production gap has a significant negative effect on inflation across all distributions, while aggregate expenditures trigger CPI inflation. This study reports that crude oil price asymmetries have a positive and marginal effect on the CPI inflation distribution. In addition, exchange rates display a positive effect on the CPI inflation distribution. With the increase in global economic activities, the completion of the production gap with imports is the main factor in evaluating whether economic activities will turn into inflation pressure. From this point of view, our findings show that the transmission mechanism of output gaps and international oil prices to CPI inflation is nonlinear in the context of the new Keynesian Phillips curve.
引用
收藏
页码：2825 / 2853
页数：29
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