Temporal Trend Analysis of Tuberculosis in Turkey Between 2005 and 2019

Introduction: Although the incidence rates of tuberculosis (TB) are declining, Turkey continues to be a high-priority country in Europe. We analyzed the trend in TB notification rates in Turkey between 2005 and 2019.Materials and Methods: In this ecological study we obtained surveillance data and mid-year population estimates from the annual reports of the Turkish General Directorate of Public Health's Tuberculosis Department and Turkish Statistics Institute between 2005 and 2019. To evaluate the trends in TB rates, calculate the annual percent changes (APCs) for successive periods, and calculate the average APCs (AAPCs) for the entire period, piecewise log-linear Poisson regression models were used.Results: The TB incidence decreased significantly from 2005 to 2019 in Turkey, with an AAPC of -5.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) -5.83%-(5.61%)]. However, the TB notification rates in foreign-born individuals increased (AAPC: 23.5%; 95% CI: 22.6-24.5) during the same period. An increasing trend in TB notification rates was observed in the 0-4 years age group after 2013, with an APC of 5.6% (95% CI: 0.9-10.5).Conclusion: TB remains an important health concern in Turkey. Healthcare executives and decision-makers should take necessary precautions to reduce the TB burden among foreign-born individuals and those aged 0-4 years.