Calibration of Priority Points for Sensitization Status of Kidney Transplant Candidates in the United States

BackgroundA primary change to the national organ allocation system in 2014 for deceased donor kidney offers was to weight candidate priority based on sensitization (i.e. calculated panel reactive antibody percentage [CPRA%]) using a sliding scale. Increased priority for sensitized patients could improve equity in access to transplantation for disadvantaged candidates. We sought to evaluate the effect of these weights using a contemporary cohort of adult US kidney transplant candidates. MethodsWe used the national Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to evaluate factors associated with sensitization using multivariable logistic models and rates of deceased donor transplantation using cumulative incidence models accounting for competing risks and multivariable Cox models. ResultsWe examined 270,912 adult candidates placed on the waiting list between Jan,2016-September,2023. Six-year cumulative incidence of deceased donor transplantation for candidates with cPRA%=[80-85) and [90-95) was 48% and 53% respectively, as compared to 37% for candidates with cPRA%=[0-20). In multivariable models, candidates with high cPRA% had the highest adjusted hazards for deceased donor transplantation. There was significant effect modification such that the association of high cPRA% with adjusted rates of deceased donor transplantation varied by region of the country, gender, race/ethnicity, prior dialysis time and blood type. ConclusionsResults indicate that the weighting algorithm for highly sensitized candidates may overinflate the need for prioritization and lead to higher rates of transplantation. Findings suggest re-calibration of priority weights for allocation is needed to facilitate overall equity in access to transplantation for prospective kidney transplant candidates. However, priority points should also account for subgroups of candidates who are disadvantaged for access to donor offers.