Demographics, Monetary Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound

被引：2

作者：

Bielecki, Marcin ^{[1
,2
]}

Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal ^{[3
,4
]}

Kolasa, Marcin ^{[3
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Warsaw, Fac Econ Sci, Warsaw, Poland

[2] European Cent Bank, Directorate Gen Econ, Forecasting & Policy Modelling Div, Frankfurt, Germany

[3] SGH Warsaw Sch Econ, Dept Quantitat Econ, Warsaw, Poland

[4] Narodowy Bank Polski, Warsaw, Poland

[5] Int Monetary Fund, Monetary & Capital Markets Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING | 2023年 / 55卷 / 07期

关键词：

aging; life-cycle models; monetary policy; zero lower bound; imperfect information; NATURAL RATE; CONSUMPTION; RATES;

D O I：

10.1111/jmcb.12972

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We develop a New Keynesian life-cycle model to assess the importance of population aging for monetary policy. The model successfully matches the age profiles of consumption-savings decisions made by European households. It implies that demographic trends contribute significantly to the decline of the natural rate of interest (NRI) and potential output growth, and exacerbate the risk of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB), given the current inflation targets. Under a realistic assumption that the central bank updates its estimates of the NRI only with some lag, aging may additionally lead to a sizable and persistent deflationary bias, elevating the ZLB risk even further.

引用

页码：1857 / 1887

页数：31

共 50 条

[1] Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
Bauer, Michael D.
Rudebusch, Glenn D.
[J]. JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, 2016, 48 (07) : 1439 - 1465
[2] Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound
Gust, Christopher
Johannsen, Benjamin K.
Lopez-Salido, J. David
[J]. IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2017, 65 (01) : 37 - 70
[3] Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound
Fischer, Stanley
[J]. AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2016, 106 (05): : 39 - 42
[4] Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound
Christopher Gust
Benjamin K. Johannsen
J. David López-Salido
[J]. IMF Economic Review, 2017, 65 : 37 - 70
[5] GLOBALIZATION AND MONETARY POLICY TOOLS AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND
Sponer, Miroslav
Sponerova, Martina
[J]. GLOBALIZATION AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES, 16TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, PTS I-V, 2016, : 2085 - 2092
[6] Signaling in monetary policy near the zero lower bound
Salas, Sergio
Nunez, Javier
[J]. B E JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS, 2020, 20 (01):
[7] The Effects of Monetary Policy Announcements at the Zero Lower Bound
Arai, Natsuki
[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, 2017, 13 (02): : 159 - 196
[8] Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound
Evans, Charles
Fisher, Jonas
Gourio, Francois
Krane, Spencer
[J]. BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2015, : 141 - 219
[9] Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
Wu, Jing Cynthia
Xia, Fan Dora
[J]. JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, 2016, 48 (2-3) : 253 - 291
[10] Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound
Gilchrist, Simon
Lopez-Salido, David
Zakrajsek, Egon
[J]. AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS, 2015, 7 (01) : 77 - 109

← 1 2 3 4 5 →