Probability of Atlantic Salmon Post-Smolts Encountering a Tidal Turbine Installation in Minas Passage, Bay of Fundy

Tidal stream energy is a renewable energy resource that might be developed to offset carbon emissions. A tidal energy demonstration (TED) area has been designated in Minas Passage, Bay of Fundy, for testing and installing marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines. Regulations require quantification of the potential for MHK turbine installations to harm local populations of marine animals. Here, we use acoustic telemetry to quantify the probability that post-smolt inner Bay of Fundy salmon encounter a turbine installation at the TED area. Previous work has quantified the detection efficiency of Innovasea HR acoustic tags as a function of the current speed and range from a moored HR2 receiver and also demonstrated that drifters carrying HR tags will be effectively detected when the drifter track crosses the array of HR2 receivers in Minas Passage. Salmon smolts were tagged and released in Gaspereau and Stewiacke Rivers, Nova Scotia, in order that the HR2 receiver array could monitor seaward migration of the post-smolts through Minas Passage and particularly through the TED area. Presently, we formulate and apply a method by which tag signals detected by the HR2 array can be used to estimate the expected number of times that a post-smolt would encounter a single near-surface MHK turbine installation during its seaward migration.