Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene

被引:16
|
作者
Cork, Steven [1 ]
Alexandra, Carla [2 ]
Alvarez-Romero, Jorge G. [3 ]
Bennett, Elena M. [4 ,5 ]
Berbes-Blazquez, Marta [6 ]
Bohensky, Erin [7 ]
Bok, Barbara [8 ]
Costanza, Robert [9 ]
Hashimoto, Shizuka [10 ]
Hill, Rosemary [11 ]
Inayatullah, Sohail [12 ,13 ]
Kok, Kasper [14 ]
Kuiper, Jan J. [15 ]
Moglia, Magnus [16 ]
Pereira, Laura [15 ,17 ]
Peterson, Garry [15 ]
Weeks, Rebecca [3 ]
Wyborn, Carina [2 ]
机构
[1] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT, Australia
[2] Australian Natl Univ, Inst forWater Futures, Canberra, ACT, Australia
[3] James Cook Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Qld, Australia
[4] McGill Univ, Dept Nat Resource Sci, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ, Canada
[5] McGill Univ, McGill Bieler Sch Environm, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ, Canada
[6] Univ Waterloo, Sch Planning & Fac Environm, Waterloo, ON, Canada
[7] James Cook Univ, CSIRO Environm, Douglas Campus, Townsville, Qld, Australia
[8] Swinburne Univ Technol, Fac Hlth Arts & Design, Hawthorn, Vic, Australia
[9] UCL, Inst Global Prosper, London, England
[10] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Tokyo, Japan
[11] James Cook Univ, Div Trop Environm & Societies, Townsville, Qld, Australia
[12] Int Islam Univ Malaysia, UNESCO Chair Futures Studies, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
[13] Tamkang Univ, Grad Inst Futures Studies, New Taipei, Taiwan
[14] Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands
[15] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden
[16] Swinburne Univ Technol, Ctr Urban Transit, Hawthorn, Vic, Australia
[17] Univ Witwatersrand, Global Change Inst, Johannesburg, South Africa
基金
瑞典研究理事会; 澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
futures; imagination; scenarios; transformation; anticipation; cognition; future visions; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT; STRATEGIC FORESIGHT; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; SCIENCE-FICTION; TIPPING POINTS; PATHWAYS; TRANSFORMATIONS; ADAPTATION; MILLENNIUM;
D O I
10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures.We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.
引用
收藏
页码:25 / 54
页数:30
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