Can low-carbon pilot policies improve the efficiency of urban carbon emissions?--A quasi-natural experiment based on 282 prefecture-level cities across China

Low-carbon pilot policies are an important way to achieve the goal of "peak carbon neutrality" and are of great significance to China's international commitments. Based on a sample of 282 prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2020, this paper investigates the impact of low-carbon pilot policies on urban carbon efficiency using a quasi-natural experiment with three batches of low-carbon pilot cities in 2010, 2012, and 2017, respectively. It is found that: (1) low-carbon pilot cities can improve urban carbon emission efficiency, which is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as the parallel trend test, placebo test, PSM-DID, and counterfactual test; (2) low-carbon pilot cities can enhance urban carbon emission efficiency by promoting the level of urban innovation and advanced urban industrial structure; and (3) the impact of low-carbon pilot policies on urban carbon emission efficiency is heterogeneous across cities with different geographical locations, population sizes, and resource endowment types. The findings provide policy insights for the promotion of low-carbon pilot policies and strengthening the construction of low-carbon pilot cities.