Modelling and analysis of future energy scenarios on the sustainability axis

Aim The aim of the paper is to put forward a sustainable electricity mix option for Turkey for the year 2030. Design & Methodology The integrated method based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) ANN method and GPRM method are used to forecast the electricity demand. The TOPSIS method is utilized to evaluate the electricity mix scenarios considering ten evaluation criteria. Originality First, a sound approach is established based on ANN and GPRM methods for the prediction of long-term electricity demand. Second, as far as we know; there is a limited number of studies that especially consider the electricity mix sustainability in the literature. Therefore, this study is the first approach that employs the TOPSIS method to research the electricity mix sustainability in Turkey for the year 2030. Third, the electricity demand forecasting is integrated into the decision-making process relating the electricity mix. Findings Electricity demand of Turkey is forecasted as approximate to 384,569 GWh for the year 2030. Scenario-(C) is found to be most sustainable scenario in that nuclear energy generation has a comparatively higher share. Conclusion The combined ANN-GPRM approach proposed in this study is suitable method to predict the long-term electricity demand. Electricity demand forecasting makes possible to determine more practical shares of power generation technologies for the development of the electricity mix scenarios. The evaluation with TOPSIS reveals that the Scenario-(C) is the most sustainable scenario when equal weights are assigned to the criteria categories. On the other hand, the rankings of the scenarios can considerably change when different weight sets are assigned to them in sensitivity analysis. Declaration of Ethical Standards The author(s) of this article declare that the materials and methods used in this study do not require ethical committee permission and/or legal-special permission.