Ethnic Variation in Fertility Preferences in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research focusing on the role of ethnicity in shaping fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been largely restricted to small-scale studies within specific groups, regions or countries, which makes it difficult to gain insight into the overall effects of ethnicity on fertility in the region. This study provides a broad comparative analysis of the variation in preferred family size among ethnic groups covering the whole SSA subcontinent. The relationship between ethnicity and family size preferences is analyzed for 500,000 women from 181 ethnic groups in 24 sub-Saharan countries using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and via multilevel Poisson regression analyses. Fertility preferences vary considerably across ethnic groups. Major factors explaining this are gender-related cultural characteristics and educational level at the group level. Interaction analyses showed that the size and direction of these effects are moderated by the women's individual characteristics. The findings make clear that someone's ethnic background should be taken into account when looking at fertility patterns and designing policies aimed at changing fertility patterns in the SSA context.