Variations of ecosystem service values as a response to land use and land cover dynamics in central malawi

Ecosystems offer several services that are crucial to the well-being and survival of humankind. However, these ecosystem services are under great pressure due to anthropogenic activities and climate change. While land use and land cover dynamics have been broadly researched in various ecological contexts, the effects of these changes on the value of ecosystem service have received limited attention in Malawi. The analysis and quantification of changes in ecosystem services values (ESVs) is an essential tool to inform policy formulation, generation of public awareness and development of sustainable land use or biodiversity conservation plans. This study, therefore, aimed at analyzing the impacts of s-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) ESVs in Central Malawi for the period 1991 to 2035 using the benefit transfer method. The results in the studied landscape indicated a decrease in total ESVs from US$88.7million in 1991 to US$80.9, US$77.6, US$76.6 and US$76.0 million in 2001, 2015, 2025 and 2035, respectively. For the period under investigation, a decreasing trend is revealed in the contributions of individual ecosystem functions and the trend is suggested to continue in the future (2035). The major contributors to the total ESVs were food production, water regulation, biological control, water supply and pollination representing 84.1, 88.0 and 88.7% in 1991, 2015 and 2035, respectively. Overall, the decrease in ESVs indicates ecological degradation due to LULC dynamics. The findings of this study can also be used to track past and future environmental changes. Furthermore, this study can assist policymakers and environmental planners to make informed decisions on investment options and prioritize conservation efforts for sustainable management of natural resources in Malawi and other landscapes of similar settings. This will ensure there are long-term provisions of essential ecosystem services in Central Malawi.