RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE AGRARIAN SECTOR: FINANCIAL ASPECT

The purpose of the study is to determine the theoretical and methodological aspects of the organization of risk management, to develop a risk assessment model based on calculations of the individual effects of the macroeconomic activity of each group of states and to avoid the risks of activity in the last period. The methodology of this study is based on methods of scientific abstraction, methods of system-functional approach, grouping, generalization and formalization, systematization, analysis and synthesis, and statistical and economic methods. The article develops the theoretical and methodological provisions of the financial risk management system on the example of the agrarian sector of the economy. Based on the use of a comprehensive approach, forecast values of individual macroeconomic effects of states using models of longitudinal (spatial, panel) data, a grouping of macroeconomic indicators of states according to GDP ranking. For the first time, forecasting of the individual effects of the macroeconomic activity of states to avoid risks was carried out using models of longitudinal data for the period 2024-2030. The results of the study on the predictive values of the individual macroeconomic effects of the states using models of longitudinal data have practical value for manufacturers and exporters in the management of financial risks. The study also provides recommendations to managers and other interested parties regarding risk management mechanisms that can be applied to improve the efficiency of the enterprises and states.