Evaluation of Water Saving and Economy Impact for Tax Reform Policy Using CGE Model with Integrated Multiple Types of Water

As one of the important policy measures to promote water conservation and efficient utilization, the evaluation of water resources tax reform policy regarding its water saving and economic impact (WSEI) is a fundamental prerequisite for policy implementation. In this study, multiple types of water production modules, including surface water, groundwater, and unconventional water, were integrated into a CGE model. Hebei Province, the first pilot area in China, was used as a case study. Through a "with-without" comparative analysis scenario, three water resources tax policy simulations were designed to address the three key issues, and the results showed that the implementation of water resources tax policy would have a certain negative impact on industry economic output in the short term, but it could effectively suppress the use of conventional water and promote the utilization of unconventional water, which is beneficial for long-term water resource conservation and sustainability. The imposition of higher differential tax rates on high water-consuming industries is more effective in further promoting the use of unconventional water and reducing the use of conventional water to achieve water conservation targets. Moreover, providing tax refunds as subsidies to water-using industries could alleviate the economic impact of water resources tax and promote water conservation. From the perspectives of water quantity, water use efficiency, and economic impact, the optimal policy scenario (S3) was selected, involving implementing differential water resources tax rates of 23% for high water-consuming industries and 18% for general water-consuming industries, coupled with tax refunds and subsidies for sectors. Based on this, corresponding recommendations in terms of differential tax rate setting, tax utilization, government regulation, and agricultural water resources tax collection were provided. These findings can offer a scientific reference for the formulation and implementation of water resources tax policies in other regions.