Stratifying risk for onset of type 1 diabetes using islet autoantibody trajectory clustering

Aims/hypothesis Islet autoantibodies can be detected prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes and are important tools for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening. Current risk stratification models rely on the positivity status of islet autoantibodies alone, but additional autoantibody characteristics may be important for understanding disease onset. This work aimed to determine if a data-driven model incorporating characteristics of islet autoantibody development, including timing, type and titre, could stratify risk for type 1 diabetes onset. Methods Data on autoantibodies against GAD (GADA), tyrosine phosphatase islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) and insulin (IAA) were obtained for 1,415 children enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study with at least one positive autoantibody measurement from years 1 to 12 of life. Unsupervised machine learning algorithms were trained to identify clusters of autoantibody development based on islet autoantibody timing, type and titre. Risk for type 1 diabetes across each identified cluster was evaluated using time-to-event analysis. Results We identified 2-4 clusters in each year cohort that differed by autoantibody timing, titre and type. During the first 3 years of life, risk for type 1 diabetes onset was driven by membership in clusters with high titres of all three autoantibodies (1-year risk: 20.87-56.25%, 5-year risk: 67.73-69.19%). Type 1 diabetes risk transitioned to type-specific titres during ages 4 to 8, as clusters with high titres of IA-2A (1-year risk: 20.88-28.93%, 5-year risk: 62.73-78.78%) showed faster progression to diabetes compared with high titres of GADA (1-year risk: 4.38-6.11%, 5-year risk: 25.06-31.44%). The importance of high GADA titres decreased during ages 9 to 12, with clusters containing high titres of IA-2A alone (1-year risk: 14.82-30.93%) or both GADA and IA-2A (1-year risk: 8.27-25.00%) demonstrating increased risk. Conclusions/interpretation This unsupervised machine learning approach provides a novel tool for stratifying risk for type 1 diabetes onset using multiple autoantibody characteristics. These findings suggest that age-dependent changes in IA-2A titres modulate risk for type 1 diabetes onset across 12 years of life. Overall, this work supports incorporation of islet autoantibody timing, type and titre in risk stratification models for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening.