Market Structure, Profitability and Regulation of Telecommunication Industry in India

The telecom industry in India has witnessed exponential growth in the past decade; however, its profitability has been on the decline post 2008. This study analyzes the determinants of profitability of the industry during 2010-2022 using the conventional structure-conduct-performance paradigm. We estimate a dynamic panel data model to understand the role of endogeneity and profit persistence in the industry. Our findings are contrary to what the theory predicts and highlight the importance of the regulatory and institutional framework of the industry. Results suggest that there is profit persistence in the industry. The study finds that among conduct variables, export intensity has a positive impact while selling intensity has a negative impact on profitability. While size is not significant, concentration has a negative impact on profitability. Import has a negative impact on profitability. These results suggest that as the telecom industry transitioned from a monopoly to an oligopolistic market with players competing in different domains and services, selling and advertisement intensity has diminishing returns to profitability while export intensity emerges as an important driver of profitability. Results also suggest the importance of the production-linked incentive scheme encouraging exports and the need for regulating concentration and encouraging import substitution.