Evaluating power to detect recurrent selective sweeps under increasingly realistic evolutionary null models

Outlier-based genomic scans have proven a popular approach for identifying loci that have potentially experienced recent positive selection. However, it has previously been shown that an evolutionarily appropriate baseline model that incorporates nonequilibrium population histories, purifying and background selection, and variation in mutation and recombination rates is necessary to reduce often extreme false-positive rates when performing genomic scans. Here we evaluate the power to detect recurrent selective sweeps using common SFS-based and haplotype-based methods under these increasingly realistic models. We find that while these appropriate evolutionary baselines are essential to reduce false-positive rates, the power to accurately detect recurrent selective sweeps is generally low across much of the biologically relevant parameter space. The detection of selective sweeps from population genomic data often relies on the premise that the beneficial mutations in question have fixed very near the sampling time. As it has been previously shown that the power to detect a selective sweep is strongly dependent on the time since fixation as well as the strength of selection, it is naturally the case that strong, recent sweeps leave the strongest signatures. However, the biological reality is that beneficial mutations enter populations at a rate, one that partially determines the mean wait time between sweep events and hence their age distribution. An important question thus remains about the power to detect recurrent selective sweeps when they are modeled by a realistic mutation rate and as part of a realistic distribution of fitness effects, as opposed to a single, recent, isolated event on a purely neutral background as is more commonly modeled. Here we use forward-in-time simulations to study the performance of commonly used sweep statistics, within the context of more realistic evolutionary baseline models incorporating purifying and background selection, population size change, and mutation and recombination rate heterogeneity. Results demonstrate the important interplay of these processes, necessitating caution when interpreting selection scans; specifically, false-positive rates are in excess of true-positive across much of the evaluated parameter space, and selective sweeps are often undetectable unless the strength of selection is exceptionally strong.