Ranking building design and operation parameters for residential heating demand forecasting with machine learning

The European Union's Energy Performance in Buildings Directive has made significant strides in enhancing building energy efficiency since its inception in 2002. However, approximately 75% of EU buildings still fall short of energy-efficient standards. Furthermore, there is a growing momentum to extend the concept of nearly zero-energy buildings to entire districts, thereby fostering Net-Zero Energy Districts. This underscores the necessity for large-scale urban building energy modelling to identify and improve underperforming buildings and energy transition planning. Given the increasing interest in black box models for building energy performance, this study aims to identify common input variables in buildings energy demand literature, analyse their influence, and develop a heating demand prediction model using different algorithms: Random Forest, XGBoost, and Extra Trees. Four large datasets generated from white-box simulation in three Spanish cities were used for training and testing the models. Four features consistently stand out as the most important for prediction: shape factor, infiltration rate, south equivalent surface, and internal gains, regardless of the training algorithm or the climatic zone. The multi-location XGBoost algorithm with an optimizer emerged as the best-performing model, with an average Mean Absolute Percentage Error value hovering around 40%. Analysis employing SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values showcases the model's ability to identify factors that drive higher heating energy demand, alongside its strong predictive performance. This suggests potential integration of the model into programmes to identify key variables to be addressed during building renovation. Additionally, results show the potential of XGBoost-based software's potential for identifying building renovation targets.