Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change

被引:6
|
作者
Davies, Sarah C. [1 ]
Thompson, Patrick L. [2 ,3 ]
Gomez, Catalina [4 ]
Nephin, Jessica [2 ]
Knudby, Anders [5 ]
Park, Ashley E. [2 ]
Friesen, Sarah K. [2 ]
Pollock, Laura J. [6 ]
Rubidge, Emily M. [2 ,7 ]
Anderson, Sean C. [1 ,8 ]
Iacarella, Josephine C. [9 ]
Lyons, Devin A. [10 ]
Macdonald, Andrew [11 ]
Mcmillan, Andrew [1 ]
Ward, Eric J. [12 ]
Holdsworth, Amber M. [2 ]
Swart, Neil [13 ]
Price, Jeff [14 ]
Hunter, Karen L. [1 ]
机构
[1] Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Pacific Biol Stn, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7, Canada
[2] Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Inst Ocean Sci, Sidney, BC V8L 4B2, Canada
[3] Univ British Columbia, Dept Zool, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
[4] Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Bedford Inst Oceanog, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada
[5] Univ Ottawa, Dept Geog Environm & Geomat, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
[6] McGill Univ, Dept Biol, Montreal, PQ H3A 1B1, Canada
[7] Univ British Columbia, Dept Forest & Conservat Sci, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
[8] Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Math, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
[9] Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Cultus Lake Labs, Cultus Lake, BC V2R 5B6, Canada
[10] Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Bedford Inst Oceanog, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada
[11] Univ Sherbrooke, Dept Biol, Sherbrooke, PQ J1K 2R1, Canada
[12] NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, Seattle, WA USA
[13] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8N 1V8, Canada
[14] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich, England
关键词
ecosystem management; environmental change; fisheries management; future climate; habitat suitability; DISTRIBUTION MODELS; RANGE SHIFTS; EVOLUTIONARY RESCUE; IMPACTS; NICHES; CONSERVATION; BIODIVERSITY; PREDICTIONS; COMPLEXITY; RESPONSES;
D O I
10.1111/ecog.06731
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species' responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty, both quantifiable and unquantifiable. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines focus on correlative models and were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.
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页数:18
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