Carbon emission structure decomposition analysis of manufacturing industry from the perspective of input-output subsystem: a case study of China

In China, manufacturing is the industry that consumes the most energy and emits the most carbon, and the effect of emission reduction on the process of reaching carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is decisive. The existing research on the driving factors of manufacturing carbon emissions has not analyzed the specific structural characteristics of manufacturing carbon emissions from the perspective of industrial relevance, and little attention has been paid to the discussion of carbon emission reduction paths of different manufacturing sectors from the perspective of final demand. This study examines the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand in China's manufacturing sector, and decomposes the carbon emissions from final demand into six distinct components using input-output analysis. In addition, this study examines the carbon emission path in manufacturing production activities, as well as the carbon emission reduction potential and scenario prediction of the factors influencing manufacturing carbon emissions. In 2018, the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand were approximately 4.61 billion tons and 3.50 billion tons, respectively. Meanwhile, direct and indirect spillovers accounted for 62.1% and 23.1% of carbon emissions from final demand, respectively. Using the carbon emission transfer route map of the manufacturing industry, the direction and amount of carbon emission transfer from various energy sources can be accurately determined. The CR scenario predicts that the manufacturing industry will reach its carbon peak between 2025 and 2030, with a corresponding peak between 4.02 and 4.06 billion tons, and that carbon emissions in 2060 will be 40% lower than in 2018.