Incorporating physiological data into species distribution models to predict the potential distribution range of the red-eared slider in China

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to predict potentially suitable habitats for invasive alien species (IAS) and evaluate invasion risk. However, SDMs have been discredited because they ignore the physiological processes by which species respond to their environment. Integrating physiological tolerance into the model is essential to improve the prediction accuracy of SDMs. Currently, this approach has not been applied in the study of the worldwide invasive species, the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans), which is one of the world's 100 worst invasive species and is widespread in China. In this study, based on hatching experiments, we found that the embryo temperature tolerance range of the red-eared slider was between 21.8 degrees C and 33.1 degrees C. Further, we studied the effect of embryo temperature tolerance on the prediction of potential invasion areas for this alien reptile species. The high suitability area (530,214.71 km2) predicted by the SDM incorporating embryo temperature tolerance data were 20.9% smaller than that (641,107.60 km2) predicted by the SDM without considering embryo temperature tolerance. The difference between the two SDMs is primarily concentrated at the edges of the high suitability areas. The incorporation of embryo temperature tolerance data influenced the model's predictions by effectively reducing the extent of edges of the high suitability areas. High suitability areas for red-eared sliders are mainly concentrated in South China, Central China, and East China, with a few in North and Southwest China. There is almost no invasion risk in most of the northeast and northwest provinces of China. This study not only has theoretical significance for optimizing model predictions, but also provides an important scientific basis for prevention and risk assessment of invasion by red-eared sliders in China.