Predictors of increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes among patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms and atrial fibrillation

Background: Patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), essential thrombocythemia (ET), polycythemia vera (PV), and myelofibrosis (MF), have increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse CV outcomes including arterial thrombosis, heart failure (HF), and CV death and coexists with MPN. Traditional risk scores (CHA2DS2-VASC and HAS-BLED) for estimating risks/benefits of anticoagula-tion to prevent thrombotic events in AF do not include MPN status. Therefore, we aimed to investigate CV out-comes in patients with MPN and AF and evaluate the predictive ability of traditional risk scores.Methods: We conducted a single-center, retrospective cohort study of patients with MPN and AF. Primary out-come was composite of CV death and arterial thromboembolism; secondary outcomes were bleeding requiring emergency department visit or hospitalization, hospitalization for HF, and all-cause death. Multivariable competing-risk and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate risk of outcomes. Re-ceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve used to evaluate predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASC and HAS-BLED of composite outcome and bleeding, respectively.Results: A total 142 patients was included (62 ET, 54 PV, 26 MF). Composite outcome, bleeding, HF hospitalization and all-cause death occurred in 39 %, 30 %, 34 %, and 48 %, of patients respectively. After multivariable modeling, MF was associated with increased risk of composite outcome (SHR 2.70, 95 % CI 1.38-5.27) and all-cause mortality (HR 9.77, 95 % CI 4.88-19.54) but not bleeding (SHR 1.19, 95 % CI 0.51-2.80) or HF admissions (SHR 0.57, 95 % CI 0.19-1.72). CHA2DS2-VASC and HAS-BLED were poor predictors of composite outcome (C-statistic 0.52, 95 % CI 0.43-0.62) and bleeding (C-statistic 0.49, 95 % CI 0.40-0.58), respectively.Conclusion: In patients with MPN and AF, MF is associated with increased risk of CV death and arterial thrombosis and traditional risk scores do not accurately predict outcomes in this patient population. Further investigation is needed to refine risk scores in this patient population.(c) 2022 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.