Climate change impacts on future residential electricity consumption and energy burden: A case study in Phoenix, Arizona

Transitioning to an equitable electricity sector requires a deep understanding of a warming climate's impacts on vulnerable populations. A vital climate adaptation measure is deploying air-conditioning (AC), but AC use can increase household energy costs. We evaluate how a warming climate will affect regional energy equity by tying temperature projections with household temperature response functions derived from smart-meter electricity data in Phoenix, Arizona. We simulate future consumption changes under two climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2070, with and without AC efficiency upgrades. We find that the median elderly and low-income household percentage changes are nearly 5 percentage points higher than their counterparts after controlling for decadal, housing, and cooling infrastructural differences. Improving AC efficiency reduces cooling consumption by up to 70% for vulnerable groups. However, a disproportionate share of racial minorities (Hispanic (21%), Black (18%), Asian (12%)) have energy burdens above 6%, indicating affordability challenges. The energy justice implications of this work suggest that intentional considerations of how technology adoption will affect energy affordability and cooling needs are imperative for households to adapt to a warming climate. Such insights are essential for mitigating risk in vulnerable populations, given that policies often rely on ACs as a primary extreme-heat adaptation strategy.