Probabilistic approach to the sustainability assessment of reinforced concrete structures in conditions of climate change

The paper presents a probabilistic method based on two methodologies - Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), for evaluating the sustainability of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in terms of their costs and CO2 emissions. The method considers the whole life of a RC structure by taking into account CO2 initially embodied in its construction materials, the absorption of CO2 by concrete due to carbonation during the service life of the structure, potential damage to the structure due to carbonation-induced corrosion of reinforcing steel that may require repairs, and relevant costs. Since there are numerous uncertainties associated with the calculation of CO2 emissions and costs, a probabilistic approach is beneficial. The emphasis is made on RC structures made of the so-called "green concretes", in which Portland cement is partially replaced with supplementary cementitious materials such as fly ash and ground granulated blast-furnace slag. The issue of a changing climate is also addressed. The method is illustrated by assessing the sustainability of a multi-story RC carpark made of different concrete types at three different locations (London, Paris and Marseille) for present and future climate conditions. This assessment's results show that using green concretes leads to a major reduction in CO2 emissions and a small decrease in the life-cycle cost of the carpark RC elements. The relative sustainability performance of green concretes slightly improves compared to Portland cement concrete for future climate conditions.