Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Paths for the Production of Prefabricated Building Components Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

Prefabricated buildings are gradually being promoted from pilot demonstration to scale, to combat climate change and improve energy conservation and emission reduction in the building sector. Despite the carbon emission of assembled structures being substantially lower than that of cast-in-place buildings due to the significant reduction in energy demand during the materialization process, there is still a lot of room for improvement. This study looks at the strategy choices made by manufacturers of prefabricated building components in relation to lowering carbon emissions from the standpoint of manufacturing prefabricated building components. By building a dynamic evolutionary game model between two parties, we investigate the evolutionary process of the strategy chosen by prefabricated building component manufacturers and the government, analyzing the evolutionary stability of each side's strategy choice, and finally using Matlab tools to simulate the effectiveness of the evolutionary stability. The study findings indicate that (1) low-carbon production costs, local government incentives and sanctions, and corporate low-carbon production benefits are the main influencing factors for manufacturers of prefabricated building components to adopt low-carbon production techniques; and that (2) the cost of regulation under low-carbon production methods and the local government performance assessment system are the key elements affecting regulations by the local government. Based on this finding, we suggest corresponding countermeasures in three areas, including investigating new low-carbon technology options for businesses, developing a new carbon emission accounting subsidy mechanism, and improving the regulatory framework of the government, to provide an efficient pathway for the growth of a low-carbon economy.