An Ensemble of Weight of Evidence and Logistic Regression for Gully Erosion Susceptibility Mapping in the Kakia-Esamburmbur Catchment, Kenya

Gully erosion is the most intensive type of water erosion and it leads to land degradation across the world. Therefore, analyzing the spatial occurrence of this phenomenon is crucial for land management. The objective of this research was to predict gully erosion susceptibility in the Kakia-Esamburmbur catchment in Narok, Kenya, which is badly affected by gully erosion. GIS and ensemble techniques using weight of evidence (WoE) and logistic regression (LR) models were used to map the susceptibility to gully erosion. First, 130 gullies were detected in the study area and portioned out 70:30 for training and validation, respectively. Nine gully erosion conditioning factors were selected as predictors. The relationships between the gully locations and the factors were identified and quantified using WoE, LR and WoE-LR ensemble models. The results show that land use/cover, distance to road, sediment transport index (STI) and topographic wetness index (TWI) are the factors that have the most influence on gully occurrence in the catchment. Additionally, the WoE-LR model performed better than the WoE and LR models, producing an AUC value of 0.88, which was higher than that of the WoE model, 0.62 and the LR model, 0.63. Therefore, the WoE-LR ensemble model is useful in gully erosion susceptibility mapping and is of help to decision makers in land-use planning.