Early nest initiation and vegetation density enhance nest survival in Wild Turkeys

The theory of adaptive habitat selection suggests resource selection by animals should reflect underlying quality, such that individual selection confers an adaptive advantage via increased fitness. Using resource selection functions and nest survival models, we demonstrated that visual obstruction at the nest site was adaptively significant but timing of nest initiation had the greatest effect on nest survival for eastern Wild Turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris). Predation risk is a selective pressure, and if individuals can perceive predation risk, they may respond by altering the selection of nest site characteristics based on prior experience. We evaluated patterns in nest site selection of 387 Wild Turkeys and the consequences of selection on reproductive success across the southeastern United States from 2014 to 2019. We monitored 549 nest sites and found that nest initiation date had the strongest effect on daily nest survival rates, wherein adult females at our earliest nest initiation date were similar to 4 times more likely to successfully nest than females at our latest nest initiation date. Selection of nest sites with greater visual obstruction also increased daily nest survival rates, and females were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.100-1.234) and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.258-1.486) times more likely to select sites for every 10-cm increase in visual obstruction and maximum vegetation height, respectively. Collectively, our results indicate that nest initiation date is likely the critical parameter driving Wild Turkey nest success, whereas vegetative conditions play a lesser role in influencing nest success. Females nesting earlier may be in better body condition and show increased nest attentiveness, which may mediate nest success more than vegetation conditions around nest sites. Our work indicates that increasing the reproductive success of Wild Turkeys may hinge on females being able to nest as early as possible within the reproductive season.