Mapping the regeneration potential of native vegetation in cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado

The Brazilian Cerrado is a hotspot of biodiversity conservation and an important global agricultural region. Cultivated pastures under different degradation levels are dominant in the landscape and are being targeted for sustainable agricultural intensification and restoration of native vegetation. In this study, we classified the cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado according to their potential for natural regeneration, based on field surveys and environmental predictors. We surveyed the native vegetation cover in 186 plots distributed along 93 cultivated pastures. The environmental predictors considered in this study were the proportion of sand in the soil, cation exchange capacity, climate water deficit, pasture age, slope, and pasture vigor index. We then applied the Random Forest regression algorithm to predict and map the cultivated pastures according to their potential for natural regeneration in the 19 Cerrado ecoregions. The potential for natural regeneration was classified into low (< 30% of native plant cover), medium (30-50%), and high (> 50%). Our prediction explained 75% of the data variability. Most of the cultivated pastures presented medium potential for natural regeneration (57%), while 31% and 12% presented high and low potentials, respectively. Cultivated pastures in ecoregions with high mechanization, due to their high water availability and extensive flat terrains, presented low potential for natural regeneration. This first attempt to map the potential for natural regeneration in the cultivated pastures of the Brazilian Cerrado can be used as a proxy for planning low-cost and predictable restoration or environmentally sustainable intensification in this major type of land use found in this biome.