A Correction Method for Customer Baseline Load Estimation Considering Demand Response Rebound Effect Based on Equivalent Electricity Price Model

Customer baseline load (CBL) estimation is a key component in the incentive-based demand response (IDR) projects. More accurate CBL results can ensure the fairness and increase the engagement of IDR projects. The control group method is an effective method for CBL estimation, but the rebound effect (RE) may affect its accuracy. RE is referred to the phenomenon the users' energy consumption reach to a higher level after participating in IDR, it will change the load pattern of the user and affect the CBL estimation results. To solve this problem, firstly, this paper expresses the economic compensation received by users during the IDR as the equivalent electricity price; Secondly, historical load data clustering method is used to get the typical load patterns match the DR days so that the relationship between electricity price and electricity consumption can be attained; Finally, by using this relationship and the equivalent electricity price model, RE can be corrected and the CBL can be re-estimated. This paper uses a dataset from South Korea which includes incentive-based demand response events for analysis. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing the estimation performance among the existing methods.