First-Order or Second-Order Election? The Influence of Population Size, Electoral System, and Party System on Participation in Local Elections

Local elections are often regarded as second-order national elections, not least because of their low turnout. However, focusing on national-level influencing factors has come at the expense of scholarly attention on the differences between municipalities. This article examines the extent to which local contextual factors, in particular population size, electoral and party systems, and the perceived importance of the local level, contribute to explaining participation differences between local elections. We analyze voter turnout in the 2014 local elections in nine German states. The results show that free list electoral systems have a negative impact on turnout. The expectation that voter turnout decreases with increasing population size, however, receives only partial support. Similarly, the evidence offers limited support for the influence of the local party system. Municipalities with a nationalized party system enjoy higher turnout, but the effect is small and can only be estimated at the aggregate level. Finally, and consistent with the second-order election perspective, we find that the likelihood of individual voter participation increases with the perceived importance of local elections.