Epidemiological features and prognosis for primary gastrointestinal follicular lymphoma

Primary gastrointestinal follicular lymphoma (PGI-FL) is a rare extra-nodal lymphoma. Its epidemiology and prognosis remain unclear. We performed a retrospective analysis of eligible patients with 1648 PGI-FL and 34 892 nodal FL (N-FL) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The age-adjusted average annual incidence of PGI-FL was 0.111/100000. The median overall survival (OS) for PGI-FL and N-FL patients was 207 and 165 months respectively. The 5-year diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) transformation rates were 2.1% and 2.6% respectively. Age, sex, grade, Ann Arbor stage, primary site and radiation were independent prognostic factors (p < 0.05). Nomograms were constructed to predict 1-, 5- and 10-year OS and disease-specific survival (DSS). The receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots showed the established nomograms had robust and accurate performance. Patients were classified into three risk groups according to nomogram score. In conclusion, the incidence of PGI-FL has increased over the past 40 years, and PGI-FL has a better prognosis and a lower DLBCL transformation rate than N-FL. The nomograms were developed and validated as an individualized tool to predict survival. Patients were divided into three risk groups to assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and choosing the optimal individualized treatments.