Spatiotemporal analysis and prediction of water quality in Pearl River, China, using multivariate statistical techniques and data-driven model

Identifying spatiotemporal variation patterns and predicting future water quality are critical for rational and effective surface water management. In this study, an exploratory analysis and forecast workflow for water quality in Pearl River, Guangzhou, China, was established based on the 4-h interval dataset selected from 10 stations for water quality monitoring from 2019 to 2021. The multiple statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), correlation analysis (CoA), and redundancy analysis (RDA), as well as data-driven model (i.e., gated recurrent unit (GRU)), were applied for assessing and predicting the water quality in the basin. The investigated sampling stations were classified into 3 categories based on differences in water quality, i.e., low, moderate, and high pollution regions. The average water quality indexes (WQI) values ranged from 38.43 to 92.63. Nitrogen was the most dominant pollutant, with high TN concentrations of 0.81-7.67 mg/L. Surface runoff, atmospheric deposition, and anthropogenic activities were the major contributors affecting the spatiotemporal variations in water quality. The decline in river water quality during the wet season was mainly attributed to increased surface runoff and extensive human activities. Furthermore, the short-term prediction of river water quality was achieved using the GRU model. The result indicated that for both DLCK and DTJ stations, the WQI for the 5-day lead time were predicted with accuracies of 0.82; for the LXH station, the WQI for the 3-day lead time was forecasted with an accuracy of 0.83. The finding of this study will shed a light on an effective reference and systematic support for spatio-seasonal variation and prediction patterns of water quality.