Drivers of Land-Use Change in Agroforestry Landscapes of Southern Mexico

The causes of deforestation and forest degradation are complex and often region-specific. Socioeconomic factors have been identified as the primary driver, having a strong impact on landscape structure as they degrade or improve the ability of landscapes to provide habitats for a variety of species. Coffee agroforestry systems have great potential to provide habitats for multiple species. However, this coexistence depends on a fragile balance as most coffee producers are poor and highly vulnerable to variations in the price of agricultural products, and coffee plants are susceptible to crop pests and diseases, among other factors. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the drivers of land use change in a high-biodiversity landscape in southern Mexico where shaded coffee systems favor the connectivity of several protected natural areas. We elaborated land-use change maps using high-resolution images and conducted 106 semi-structured interviews to gather information on the causes of land-use change. The types of land cover across 7409 ha changed over ten years (2005-2015): 3658 ha (49%) due to habitat loss and degradation, 2370 ha (32%) to habitat gain, and 1381 ha (19%) to conversion from other non-forest areas. In all cases, the predominant drivers were the incidence of pests and diseases and the lack of profitability of coffee, which influenced the strategies available to producers. The volatility of coffee prices, the incidence of pests and diseases, and the lack of a sustainable national coffee policy are serious threats to the conservation of shaded coffee systems and biodiversity in this region.