Cyber-enabled tradecraft and contemporary espionage: assessing the implications of the tradecraft paradox on agent recruitment in Russia and China

The acquisition of clandestine human sources - or agents - inside Russia and China likely remains the key priority for Western HUMINT agencies, and yet their ability to do this safely is quickly waning. This paper considers the utility of cyberspace for espionage recruitment in these two hard target states, and assesses its value as a potential solution to emerging surveillance threats. With the aid of history, this paper proposes that hard target espionage is fundamentally afflicted by a tradecraft paradox, one that will severely curtail the utility of cyberspace to agent recruitment.