Terms of trade, governance and household income in selected African countries

As African countries grapple with the challenges of terms of trade occasioned by economic uncertainty, there is a need for a study on the effect of terms of trade on household income in Africa. Also, as African countries continue to commit to the role of institutional quality in improving terms of trade, this study further reinforces the role of governance on household income in Africa. The study employs the Two-stage Least Squares (2SLS) fixed effects estimation technique based on data spanning 2002-2021 for 36 selected African countries. This study provides more robust evidence by employing household final consumption expenditure as a measure of household income. Findings suggest that improvement in the terms of trade stimulates household income. Similarly, the results indicate that governance plays a critical role in enhancing household income status in Africa. Specifically, government effectiveness, control of corruption, regulatory quality, rule of law, and political stability positively and statistically significantly influence household income levels in Africa. Furthermore, GDP per capita growth positively impacts household income, albeit the effect is statistically insignificant. On the contrary, higher inflation rates, exchange rate volatility, and foreign direct investment (net inflows) have a limiting effect on household income, although, the effect of currency depreciation is generally not statistically significant. Sequel to these findings, the study calls for strong institutional quality and export promotion strategies in Africa.