Interactions between Online Shopping, In-Store Shopping and Weekly Travel Behavior: An Analysis Before and in the Aftermath of COVID-19 in Lisbon, Portugal

The standard framework for evaluating the impact of online shopping on travel and shopping behavior considers the possibility of complementarity, substitution, neutrality, or modification effects. Complementarity (online shopping complementing physical purchases, or vice versa) and substitution (online shopping replacing trips to physical stores and eventually the stores altogether) have generally received more attention in research, particularly the latter, since substitution may substantially impact travel and street life within cities. This paper analyzes data from a two-wave seven-day shopping and travel survey implemented in Lisbon before the COVID-19 pandemic (January-February 2020) and in its aftermath (April-May 2022) using a structural equation model and multigroup analysis. The results show that, in 2022, variables such as education or income, often used to characterize online shoppers, have lost significance as predictors, suggesting a broader engagement with online shopping. Moreover, the complementarity effect found in 2020 has given place to substitution, which also supports that the physical-online shopping balance might have tipped toward a more generalized adoption of online shopping in the aftermath of the pandemic.