Navigating the Intersection of Economic Growth and Environmental Protection: An Analysis of Sustainable Transformation

This study delves into the intricate relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, focusing on Shandong Province, China. Through an extensive analysis of decoupling dynamics, decomposition factors, and decoupling efforts, the study uncovers significant insights into the complex interplay between economic prosperity and environmental sustainability. The research reveals a pivotal shift in decoupling trends, with carbon emissions showing a consistent rise prior to 2015, driven by extensive fossil energy consumption. However, since 2003, a marked decline in the growth rate of carbon emissions has been observed, attributed to proactive policy implementations enhancing energy efficiency and environmental protection measures. The introduction of decoupling elasticity further enriches this understanding, showcasing an inverted N-shaped trend from 2001 to 2021, indicating a dynamic interplay between carbon emissions and economic growth. Decomposition analysis highlights the crucial role of energy use efficiency, driven by the energy intensity effect, in reducing aggregate carbon emissions. The industrial production effect also plays a critical role in moderating emissions. The concept of decoupling effort underscores the efficacy of environmental protection policies in promoting sustainable economic growth. Government-led economic reforms since 2006 have been pivotal in achieving weak decoupling efforts in states. Additionally, a dynamic decoupling prediction model based on the IPAT function offers valuable insights for guiding environmental policies, enhancing our understanding of the potential impact of different policies on decoupling trends. This research not only contributes significantly to existing knowledge but also offers essential implications for policymakers in their pursuit of sustainable development in this pivotal region.