Current and future suitable habitats of a range-restricted species group (Cyrtodactylus chauquangensis) in Vietnam

Climate change is one of the most serious threats to the world's biodiversity. Reptiles with limited dispersal capacities, small geographic ranges, or specialised habitats are considered to be especially vulnerable. In this study, we applied the Maximum Entropy algorithm to predict the current and future suitable habitats of a range- restricted species group (Cyrtodactylus chauquangensis) in Vietnam. The models show that the current suitable habitat of C. chauquangensis species group mainly covers areas in Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, and a part of Nghe An provinces, Vietnam, covering approximately 83,521.53 km2. The models also indicate Karst Distance, Mean Diurnal Range, and Precipitation of Driest Month as the top three important variables in generating the potential distribution of C. chauquangensis species group. Additionally, we also assessed the impact of climate change on the future suitable habitat of the group under different scenarios. Under the scenario of climate change RCP 4.5, the potential distribution for the group is predicted to decrease significantly, with an average of 59.74% and 65.74% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. For RCP 8.5, the average loss area due to climate change is around 64.18% and 71.44% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Based on our predictions, suitable habitats in Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An provinces could be potential refugia of the group under the impact of climate change. We strongly suggest that these areas be highly prioritised for in-situ conservation measures to safeguard species of the C. chauquangensis group in Vietnam.