Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits

被引：9

作者：

Gardini, Laura ^{[1
]}

Radi, Davide ^{[2
,3
]}

Schmitt, Noemi ^{[4
]}

Sushko, Iryna ^{[5
,6
]}

Westerhoff, Frank ^{[4
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Urbino Carlo Bo, Dept Econ Soc & Polit, Urbino, Italy

[2] Univ Cattolica Sacro Cuore, DiMSEFA, Milan, Italy

[3] VSB Tech Univ Ostrava, Dept Finance, Ostrava, Czech Republic

[4] Univ Bamberg, Dept Econ, Bamberg, Germany

[5] NASU, Inst Math, Kiev, Ukraine

[6] Kyiv Sch Econ, Kiev, Ukraine

[7] Univ Bamberg, Dept Econ, Feldkirchenstr 21, D-96045 Bamberg, Germany

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION | 2023年 / 210卷

关键词：

Macroeconomics; Business cycle dynamics; Investor sentiment; Animal spirits; Mathematical economics; Nonlinear dynamical systems; TRADE CYCLE; HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS; FLOOR; STOCK; BAD;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.012

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We propose an elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits in which aggregate investment expenditure depends on firms' sentiment. Firms display one of three sentiment states. When national income increases (decreases) strongly, firms are optimistic (pessimistic) and aggregate investment expenditure is high (low). Otherwise, firms are neutral and aggregate investment expenditure is normal. A rigorous mathematical analysis of our elementary macroeconomic model sheds new light on how animal spirits may contribute to fluctuations in economic activity. In particular, we show that a bidirectional feedback process between national income and investor sentiment may create endogenous business cycles that coevolve with waves of optimism and pessimism.(c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：342 / 359

页数：18

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