Estimating the Past and Future Trajectory of LUCC on Wetland Ecosystem Service Values in the Yellow River Delta Region of China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can impact the provision of ecosystem service values (ESVs), particularly in wetland regions that are subject to frequent and unsustainable land conversions. Exploring the past and future trajectory of LUCC and its effects on ESV has a great significance for wetland management and habitat stability. This study tried to reveal the patterns and magnitude of LUCC on ESV under varying land development scenarios in the Yellow River Delta region, which is a typical region undergoing serious degradation in China. In this study, a combined approach utilizing equivalent coefficients of ecosystem services was employed to determine the ESV of the wetland in relation to the major land use types (LUTs). The Markov-FLUS model was then used to simulate LUTs across multiple scenarios in 2030 and to clarify the relationship of ESV between wetland and other LUTs. The results indicated that the wetland was severely degraded, with a loss in area of 6679.89 ha between 2000 and 2020. Cropland and water body were the main sources of diversion and turnover for the wetland, respectively. Despite the multiple scenario projections revealed, the wetland area exhibited a similar growth rate and a homogeneity in ESV under the natural development (ND), urban construction and development (UCD), and the ecological development (ED) scenarios. The ED scenario was deemed the optimal development strategy for the wetland ecosystem. Our research will improve the comprehension of land development decisions and promote sustainable development in estuarine wetland areas.