Examining the effect of ice dynamic changes on subglacial hydrology through modelling of a synthetic Antarctic glacier

Hydrologic pathways beneath ice sheets and glaciers play an important role in regulating ice flow. Antarctica has experienced, and will continue to experience, changes in ice dynamics and geometry, but the associated changes in subglacial hydrology have received less attention. Here, we use the GlaDS subglacial hydrology model to examine drainage evolution beneath an idealised Antarctic glacier in response to steepening ice surface slopes, accelerating ice velocities and subglacial lake drainages. Ice surface slope changes exerted a dominant influence, redirecting basal water to different outlet locations and substantially increasing channelised discharge crossing the grounding line. Faster ice velocities had comparatively negligible effects. Subglacial lake drainage results indicated that lake refilling times play a key role in drainage system evolution, with lake flux more readily accommodated following shorter refilling times. Our findings are significant for vulnerable Antarctic regions currently experiencing dynamic thinning since subglacial water re-routing could destabilise ice shelves through enhanced sub-shelf melting, potentially hastening irreversible retreat. These changes could also affect subglacial lake activity. We, therefore, emphasise that including a nuanced and complex representation of subglacial hydrology in ice-sheet models could provide critical information on the timing and magnitude of sea-level change contributions from Antarctica.