Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

Water resources, as an essential natural resource, plays an irreplaceable role in the ecological environment, social economy, and human survival. Water resource carrying capacity (WRCC), as an important indicator of sustainable development, has been widely used to assess the capacity of water resources to support economic and social development. Using Xuzhou City as a case study, the sustainable capacity of water resources in the current (from 2012 to 2020) and future (projected scenarios in 2025 and 2030) stages were investigated by constructing a multi-level fuzzy-based evaluation model. The results indicated that the average WRCC score is 0.4388 in Xuzhou City, ranging from 0.2908 to 0.6330, with a significant decline in the score value of 0.4644 in 2019 but an apparent improvement in WRCC from 2012 to 2020. However, the continued pressure on water resources sustainable development is unchanged in Xuzhou, according to the projected assessment of WRCC in 2025 and 2030. Overall, the WRCC in Xuzhou City will be overloaded under future development scenarios, i.e., sustainable development mode (Scenario A), water conservation mode (Scenario B), rapid socioeconomic development mode (Scenario C), and adjustment of industrial structure mode (Scenario D). Thus, several measures, such as industrial restructuring and water conservation and utilization, should be conducted to enhance the carrying capacity of regional water resources and ensure the quality and sustainability of regional social and economic development. The results can provide a reference for the rational utilization of water resources in Xuzhou and are of some significance in promoting the city's coordinated socioeconomic growth.