Vulnerability of the Small-Scale Fishery to Climate Changes in the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea)

Climate change is altering the functioning of ecosystems and species distribution worldwide, with negative impacts on human activities, including fisheries. The Adriatic Sea is an extremely productive area for fisheries, due to the strong outflow of nutrients from rivers and the periodic mixing of nutrients from the Mediterranean. However, the Adriatic Sea is also a semi-closed basin, where species do not have the ability to move to higher latitudes to avoid warming of the waters. Climate change acts on biodiversity in a variety of ways, such as causing changes in the trophic network-favoring the intake of thermophilic alien species, often in competition with local species-and altering the biological cycles of acclimatized marine species to temperate-cold climates. These problems become critical factors for the survival of species and for fisheries relying on these resources. Within this context, to have estimates of possible modifications of the nektonic community in the near future could be quite useful for preparing adaptation plans. In this paper, using Maximum Entropy models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we estimated the future habitat suitability for a set of marine nektonic species of different thermal affinity (e.g., cold, temperate and warm species) within GSA17 (Northern and Central Adriatic Sea), among the most productive-and most exploited-areas of the Mediterranean Sea. This study shows how, at the current pace, climate change could modify marine ecosystems to the extent that future habitat suitability will decrease for nearly half of the species considered, with a decrease in landings from 13.5 to 86.9%, depending on the scenario. Only for the blue crab Callinectes sapidus has an increase in habitat suitability been observed. For most of the species considered, temperature was the most important variable to explain the probability of relative presence within the GSA17. On the other hand, GSA17 climatic conditions in the near future under the tested scenarios could become a suitable environment for tropical species, which could find here a suitable habitat, at least in terms of thermal features. Results of the present study can help the management of fishery resources and local markets in the near future, providing information to predict changes in the composition of the aquatic community and draw up management plans that take into account the effects of climate change.