Evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of wheat production risk in Gansu Province of China under the background of climate change

Agro-meteorological hazards are more common due to climate change, which poses an increasing threat to agricultural production. It is of great significance to carry out an agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment. Therefore, taking wheat production in the Gansu Province of China as an example, the dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of risk are examined. The results are as follows: 1) At the municipal level, Pingliang and Qingyang have much greater yield reduction rates, average fluctuation coefficients, variation coefficients of yield reduction rates, and severe disaster probabilities than other cities, indicating that they are high risk areas. 2) The risk level of wheat production varies considerably among counties within municipal administrations. In most cities, high and low risk counties coexist, necessitating a refined risk assessment based on a smaller administrative scale. 3) From a county perspective, in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, the average yield reduction rates for wheat in Gansu were -10.58%, -14.00%, -8.17%, and -5.67%, respectively; the variation coefficients for yield reduction were -0.75, -0.74, -0.88 and -0.89; and the proportion of counties prone to severe yield reduction were 15.4%, 41.0%, 15.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. 4) The 1990s were the most devastating decade of the disaster. After 2000, the decline and fluctuation of wheat yield dropped dramatically, as well as the frequency of major disasters. After 2010, there was a risk shift, with high risk areas relocating from southern to northern Gansu. 5) Most counties are classified as medium, medium-low, or low risk, with high risk counties concentrated in Qingyang City and low risk counties primarily in Jiuquan and Zhangye City. 6) The leading causes of wheat production risk change in different years. Atmospheric moisture condition has had the most significant impact on wheat production risk over the last 30 years, followed by sunlight and temperature, while advances in the rural economy and agricultural modernization have significantly reduced wheat production risk. This analysis shows a more detailed regional distribution of wheat production risk in Gansu Province. The risk variation areas and their dominant influencing elements can be recognized, providing the government with a decision basis and scientific reference to respond to climate change and ensure food security. Based on the trend, fluctuation, and extreme characteristics of wheat production, a refined assessment of wheat production risk at the county level in Gansu Province is carried out. Additionally, the dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of risk are examined.There are considerable differences in risk levels among counties within the same city, and high risk and low risk counties coexist.Most counties are classified as medium, medium-low, or low risk, with high risk counties concentrated in the Qingyang region and low risk counties mainly in the Jiuquan and Zhangye regions.Over the last 30 years, atmospheric moisture condition has had a more significant impact on risk, followed by sunlight and temperature effects. Enhancements in the rural economy and agricultural modernization have significantly lowered wheat production risk.