Extreme climate events under global warming in Iran

被引:2
|
作者
Naderi, Mostafa [1 ]
Saatsaz, Masoud [1 ]
Peely, Ahmad Behrouj [2 ]
机构
[1] Inst Adv Studies Basic Sci IASBS, Dept Earth Sci, Zanjan 4513766731, Zanjan, Iran
[2] Shiraz Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Earth Sci, Shiraz, Iran
关键词
Drought; extreme precipitation; climate change; CMIP6; transient downscaling; Iran; CHANGE SCENARIOS; WEATHER EVENTS; ARID REGION; LOCAL-SCALE; PRECIPITATION; IMPACTS; SURFACE; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; TEMPERATURE;
D O I
10.1080/02626667.2024.2317269
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
Extreme climate events and precipitation depths are assessed for Iran with minimal uncertainties, considering three sources of uncertainty: general circulation models (GCMs), future scenarios, and downscaling method. The frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of extreme events, along with extreme precipitation depths for 2- to 50-year return periods, are evaluated for the baseline period (1980-2014) and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-1.9, SSP2- 4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (2021-2080). Daily precipitation and temperature data from multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 are statistically downscaled for 51 stations across Iran. Extreme precipitation depths increase under SSP1-1.9, whereas the precipitation anomaly depends on location under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The southern coastal and southeastern regions (remaining stations) will experience more-frequent shorter (less-frequent longer) extreme events. The GCM and downscaling method are the main sources of uncertainty in projected precipitation, while climate scenario significantly contributes to the uncertainty in projected temperature.
引用
收藏
页码:337 / 364
页数:28
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