Estimation of maize yield incorporating the synergistic effect of climatic and land use change in Jilin, China

Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning. Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize, but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production. In this study, we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic (SD), future land use simulation (FLUS) and a statistical crop model to pre-future maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province, China. The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km(2) from 2030 to 2050. Nevertheless, the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield. the scenarios, RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production, with a doubled total yield in 2050. Notably, the yield gap between different counties will be further widened, which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection, e.g., strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas, and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.