Local information and firm expectations about aggregates *

被引:5
|
作者
Dovern, Jonas [1 ,3 ]
Mueller, Lena Sophia [1 ]
Wohlrabe, Klaus [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Nurnberg, Germany
[2] Univ Munich, Ifo Inst, Leibniz Inst Econ Res, Munich, Germany
[3] CESifo, Munich, Germany
关键词
GDP expectations; Expectation heterogeneity; Disagreement; Rational inattention; ifo business tendency survey; STICKY PRICES; EXPERIENCES;
D O I
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码:1 / 13
页数:13
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