A spatial-temporal analysis on green development in China's Yellow River Basin: model-based efficiency evaluation and influencing factors identification

Green development is an important path to achieve sustainable development, which has attracted worldwide attention. However, the evaluation system of green development efficiency (GDE) and the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of factors affecting GDE are still critical gaps that need to be filled. Here, based on the panel data of 59 prefecture-level cities in Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2019, we improve the evaluation system to measure GDE, and explore the influencing factors of GDE and their spatial-temporal heterogeneity. From our results, the GDE of Yellow River Basin has improved from 0.56 to 0.87, but it still needs further improvement. Industrial upgrading, technological innovation and transport infrastructure are main factors affecting GDE. More importantly, the influence of these factors has significant time-lag effect and spatial differences. Therefore, the green development of Yellow River Basin should not only restore the ecological environment, but also take account of key factors affecting regional GDE according to local conditions, ultimately achieving a win-win situation between ecological environmental conservation and social-economic development.