Agrosilvopastoral system as a potential model for increasing soil carbon stocks: a century model approach

Agrosilvopastoral systems have been used as sustainable production models that can promote soil organic carbon (SOC) storage. However, there are no simulation studies with the Century model to estimate the SOC accumulation capacity in the long term, analyzing the effects of management and climate change in integrated crop livestock-forest (ICLF) systems. This study aimed to simulate soil C dynamics in two chronosequences of land-use composed of native vegetation (NV), degraded pasture (DPA) and ICLF system in the Cerrado of Minas Gerais, in addition to designing future scenarios to verify the potential of SOC accumulation through climate change. The results showed that the Century model reliably simulated the SOC stocks in the two chronosequences evaluated. The model predicted an increase in SOC stocks at two sites by converting the DPA system (46.04 and 42.38 Mg ha-1) into ICLF systems (54.94 and 51.71 Mg ha-1). The Century also predicted that a 20 mm decrease in rainfall and a 2 & DEG;C increase in temperature in the tropical regions studied could reduce the SOC stocks more expressively in degraded pastures, while agroforestry systems could show a smaller reduction in SOC stocks. In addition, the results showed that replacing degraded pastures into agrosilvopastoral systems, especially in clayey soils, contributes to increasing SOC stocks. Thus, agroforestry systems are potentially viable to maintain the sustainability of agriculture in the face of climate change.