A new probability density function for the surface elevation in irregular seas

To date, the predominant means for computing the probability density function (p.d.f.) for the free surface elevation of a nonlinear, irregular water wave field, free of assumptions involving narrow-bandedness and small directionality, is the approximate Gram-Charlier series solution of Longuet-Higgins (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 17, 1963, pp. 459-480, hereafter LH63). In this paper we re-visit the derivation of this p.d.f. to second order in the wave steepness, utilizing both moment and cumulant generating functions. We show that LH63's approximate solution based on the cumulant generating function, in fact, matches that derived from the moment generating function. Moreover, through a change of variables coupled with complex analysis, it is shown that the approximation employed by LH63 is unnecessary, and the second-order p.d.f. stemming from the cumulant generating function can be represented exactly in terms of the Airy function. The new second-order p.d.f. predicts increased probability of extreme positive surface elevations typical of e.g. rogue waves, relative to both second- and third-order solutions of LH63. This heavy positive tail is inherent, and is explained through comparison of the asymptotic limits of the p.d.f.s for large surface elevations. A semi-theoretical method is also proposed for remedying non-physical spurious oscillations that arise in the negative tail, based on the envelope of the Airy function with negative arguments. This modified negative tail is valid for irregular wave fields having skewness less than or equal to 0.2. The new p.d.f.s are compared against those based on data sets generated from second-order irregular wave theory as well as a fully nonlinear, spectrally accurate numerical wave model. Good accuracy is collectively demonstrated for directionally spread irregular seas in both finite and infinite water depths for a range of directional spreading.